With no credible enemy actively attacking the US, and a war based, at best, on questionable premises, enacting a draft would be just about the worst thing for the military. The ‘bad days’ of the 70s were in part the result of the draft, the pains from the retreat from and abandonment of Vietnam, and the backlash from the vocal minority against the Military Industrial Complex.
Upsides to a draft.
1. Theoretically you achieve a broader cross section of society, both economically and otherwise. This will ensure a more diverse military population.
2. Theoretically a steady state influx of personnel that are predictable, statistically, i.e. you know that in week 1 of month 1 you’ll get x number of people inducted at location x, and that in week four of month ten, same numbers. For combatant commanders this would be a great thing.
3. Theoretically, the burden of supporting a war is shared more equally among all classes. This will bring more national cohesion due to shared sacrifice. Theoretically.
Downsides to a draft
1. Realistically, you’ll never achieve the mythical cross section of society. And is that REALLY an upside? The jury is still out on that. No definative studies that I am aware of have shown that this is the plus that pro-draft people say it is. I have my doubts. Is an unwilling conscript who has no desire to be in the military really an asset? I don’t think so.
2. Realistically, any steady state numbers are doubtful. There is MUCH more information available today about the draft, how it works, and how to beat it. Local draft board and appeals boards will be swamped with requests for deferments, reclassifications, exceptions and the like. Training for these boards, and staffing them is spotty at best. Based on my converstations with key players in the Selective Service System; a) there are not enough people signed up to fill all the slots that would be needed, and b) the system is not funded nor trained enough to actually respond to what will happen in the event of a draft being enacted. One of the things that isn’t addressed is security of/for the draft boards. There WILL be violence directed at them, and they do not have a security plan in place. So the system will be overwhelmed and that will prevent any semblence of predictable input/throughput numbers.
3. Realistically, the burden will NEVER be equally shared among the classes.
The rich/upperclass/influential/politicians will take great pains to ENSURE that their kids will NOT have to serve. Always been that way, pretty much always will be. Just the facts of life. Same principle as the tax system.
4. The backlash against a draft would be astronomical. In EVERY conflict the US has been in, where there has been a draft, there have ALWAYS been draft riots. In WWII they were toned down, but mainly because Japan and Nazi Germany were clearly aggresive threats against the contiguous United States, and the US Government made a very credible case that the war HAD to be fought. But remember, this ONLY came about AFTER Pearl Harbor. Prior to 12/7/41, the overall mood of the US was isolationist. And the backlash and societal upheaval would be more on the order of what we saw in the late 60’s/early 70’s.
5. Unwilling conscripts are not the answer, unless what you need is cannon fodder. And I submit that that approach is too cynical for me. Unmotivated draftees are worse than empty files. I’d rather be several sailors short, than have people filling the slots that required me to expend extra time motivating, monitoring and supervising because they didn’t want to be there. And it would be even worse if you were in ground combat. Imagine what it would be like, being on the line and you couldn’t trust the guys around you to watch your ass. Oh, THATs a great solution to the thin green line.
6. Unwilling conscripts are a poison in the heart of a military. They lead, in absence of a direct threat, to discontent, resentment and bad morale. I refer you to why you don’t want your new guy to get in with the punk on restriction.
I could go on about the downsides to a draft, but the truth of the matter is that a draft is not in the cards. The politicians KNOW why it’s a bad idea. The truth is, the morons in congress squawking about bringing back a draft (Of note, the only ones who are mentioning a draft are Democrats) are only doing so in a cynical ploy to screw the Republicans. They (those pushing for a draft) only do so to force the administration to have to oppose it, giving the dems an opportunity to say ‘See how the administration doesn’t care about the troops’ when they (again, the dems) don’t care either. Its merely yet another political ploy.
Tags: DOD, Draft, military, Politics, Selective Service, War
