Barak Obama: Some of his ideas actually make some sense.
March 4, 2008 by tomahawkgod
On another BBS I am a member of, this link to a youtube video of Obama was posted. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl32Y7wDVDs. The video features some of his ideas about DOD and spending cuts and policy changes he would make, viz DOD. The comment the poster made was ’Why this man must be kept out of the White House, OR….How to destroy America.’
Now, I am NOT an ObamaFan. I think that without question he is a populist. I think that he has one thing in common with Hilary, aside from the obvious - membership in the Democratic Party and being pretty liberal in political thought - he wants to be President REALLY BAD! So he is pretty much, in my humble opinion, selling the basic populist themes ‘Not your fault’ ‘Give me the power and I will fix it’ ‘It’s those rich people who get all the unfair breaks fault, and we’re gonna stick it to them’ and my favorite ‘All we need to do is CHANGE THINGS’.
OK. We are going to change WHAT? HOW are we going to change it, and perhaps MOST IMPORTANTLY, WHY are we going to change it? These are questions he has adroitly managed to not answer. The what and how are obviously important (like How are we gonna fund these initiatives and how is that going to impact who) but I am more inclined to worry about the Why question.
It seems that the younger generation (I am arguably a member, being born in 1964) talk a lot about the NEED FOR CHANGE. What is never answered is WHY. Why do we need to change this or that? I’m not saying that change isn’t needed, but what I have seen is a conviction on the need for change without ever showing any reason why it needs to change. I guess what I am trying to say is that it appears there is a lot of change just for the sake of change, without ever being shown why something needs to be changed.
Its kind of like this. Say that there is a new drug just coming out. And this drug will cause the male body to have an erection. And the drug company starts saying that EVERY MAN NEEDS TO TAKE THIS MEDICINE. Why? Is every man not able to have erections? Or, as another example, take my brother.
My brother is an IT director for a small company. He is about 14 years younger than I am, and he is a computer geek. All the computers in his house run LINUX. He is really smart about computers. He makes the pretty common younger IT guy pitch that “BUSINESS NEEDS TO CHANGE” but when my mom, who is 70 and in many things pretty pragmatic (and this is a woman who in the 60’s was a Goldwater Republican/Conservative, broke a lot of political ground for women in 1960s Florida, and is now a pretty committed Hilary Liberal) asks him “Change What? Why?”, he can’t answer her with anything other than “It just does!”
That’s what’s going on with Obama. All populism, but with no “WHY”. In my humble opinion, if you don’t know why something needs to be changed, it generally means that you don’t really understand it in the first place. Again, take my brother. Great guy, smart about computers. But he’s never really been IN business. Being an IT director is an important job. You have to know a) what computers can do, b) how to make them work together, and c) what you producers NEED in order to produce. One of the discussions he and I would get into was his frustration with the sales force. He couldn’t understand why they wanted the Microsoft Office suite of applications, when in his opinion the Lotus suite was far superior. I tried to explain to him that their needs really overshadowed his, because they, sales, were the only ones in the company who made the company money. They wanted Office, because, regardless of your opinion of Microsoft, you gotta admit that the Office suite is a pretty well (mostly) thought out approach. All of the componants interacted and interfaced easily and smoothly (mostly) with each other. And the Windows GUI is pretty intuitive, whereas the Lotus one was not so much (This was about 6 years ago). The sales force already knew how to use Office, and it did what they needed to do.
I think what confused him the most about it all was what I said about sales being the only element of the company that makes the company money. “Without IT (The company makes a high end computer peripheral) and the factory, the company makes no money.” So I explained to him that you can make the BEST widget in the world, and make it cheaper than anyone else, and support it better than anyone else, and none of that makes a hill of beans, if you ain’t selling it.
Point being here, is that he’d never been IN business. I know IT guys will hate this, but IT is support. It is pretty much on the same level as maintenance. Not saying it isn’t important, but there is a BIG difference between support and sales. Support is a cost. Unless you make computers (and really even there, as IT isn’t production) the IT costs you money and doesn’t bring in a single cent. IT expenses are in the liability column, and there is no income column in the IT department ledger. IT doesn’t make money. Sales does, which is why sales is the most important department in the company. No sales, no income. Simple as that.
Now people who are IN business know that. They know that while good production is highly important, good sales is a must. An effective sales force can market and sell a, shall we say ‘less than optimum’ product. Microsoft is a PRIME example of this. Netscape was far superior to Microsoft’s corresponding offerings. To do what Netscape Navigator could do for free, you would have to buy OUTLOOK, IE, and FRONTPAGE. And you still wouldn’t have everything, because OUTLOOK doesn’t really have a seemless newsreader segment. But Outlook Express did. (I never understood that). So you could get free from Netscape what would cost you $100+ from Microsoft.
Can you even get Netscape anymore? Nope. But Microsoft Office still leads the pack. Now Lotus and OpenOffice are moving up, but still not anywhere near the top of the heap. Why? Because Microsoft hires a good sales force. And sales includes marketing. And someone IN business would know all that. And without knowing things like that, and really ‘grokking’ them, you might be inclined to think that ‘your way’ is better. But the sales force will tell you that every minute spent trying to learn a new program is a minute you aren’t spending prospecting for new clients. And that costs the company more money than adopting your new program MIGHT save the company.
Business people, people who ‘grok’ business know (unlike those in Congress) that POTENTIAL savings a) aren’t REAL savings and b) ARE NOT INCOME. You cant spend potential savings. They MIGHT (once they become REAL cost savings) enhance the bottom line, but really not by that much. Put another way, every department in a company (and this is a general rule) represents costs except one - sales. Sales is the only department that shows an income. This is business.
And yet we have myriads of people advocating change. But they aren’t advocating change for a reason - this or that function, organization or process isn’t working as it should. They are advocating change for changes sake. Ultimately they are advocating changing the ‘what is’ for ‘what they want it to be’ so they can understand it, because they don’t really understand the why of ‘what it is’. This is not only bad practice from a management standpoint, it’s pretty stupid and wasteful from an economics standpoint as well. Incurring costs, and make NO mistake about it - change costs money and time - that you do not really need to make causes chaos and confusion in the organization. I saw that many times in my 23 years in the Navy. A new ‘fad’ would come along and the Navy would spend oooodles of money trying to force it in place, and what resulted was mass confusion, chaos, frustration and lost productivity, when even a cursory examination of the ‘what is’ would have shown that the change, as presented, a) would most likelycost a lot of money and time and b) would not produce the desired effects and c) was not grounded in a true understanding of the ‘what is’.
This is what ‘We NEED to CHANGE’ will bring you when you have agents of such change can’t offer up the WHAT and HOW and again, most importantly WHY of change.
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Anyway, I find I have wandered FAR away from where I started this post at. As one of my former Chiefs liked to say, ‘to make a short story long’, my point was to illustrate that while I do not support Obama, and my reasoning for such lack of support is based on his populist rhetoric of ‘We Need To Change’, I do think that Obama does have some good ideas. And they should be looked at by whoever ascends to the Oval Office this November.
BACK TO THE SUBJECT AT HAND. OBAMAs Comments regarding DOD as reported in the video on YouTube.
After watching this video, I felt the following remarks pertinant. Basically just to be fair to the guy.
1. You either agree with unproven, flawed logic supporting going into Iraq or you were/are against the war in Iraq. Much evidence supports the position that we shouldn’t have gone in, at least with the plan that Bush/Cheney/Rumsfield created, which is kinda hard to say ‘it worked’ ’cause by any rational metric, Iraq is an unsafe country to be in. I firmly believe that we should not have gone in, but that is really a moot point (BTW, I was on active duty at the time, on a combat staff over there at the time, and this war was manufactured - they had made up their minds and put things into motion in 2001/2002, WELL before they said publically that they were going in).
Question is, now that we’ve gone in there and basically made a mess, and allowed the situation to develop that created the mess that is there now, what do we do about it? I don’t think that we can just cut and run. And I think that if he gets elected he’ll get educated as to why we’re gonna be there awhile. I’d like to hear what he proposes to do about the abysmal situation that is there now.
2. Eliminate wasteful spending. Well, there is certainly enough of that in DC - WHAT a target rich environment. My question is WHAT EXACTLY does he plan to eliminate? There is ALOT in DOD that is wasteful. DDG-1000, LCS, etc etc etc. I like the idea of an independant review board vetting DOD programs. Just because DOD wants something doesn’t mean they need it. There are quite a number of programs that in reality have no current defined Operational Requirement (No new weapon or other system is SUPPOSED to be developed except in response to a combatant commander defined Operational Requirement. That ain’t happening), and exist merely because the program happens to be produced by a company in a congress critters district. NOT the way we need to be doing business.
Case in point.
I was at a conference several years ago (Late 2003), that dealt with a particular weapons system. At the conference the CAPT in charge of the conference gave a brief about a program that they were worried was going to be forced on the Navy. An activity within the Navy was tasked to evaluate the target aimpoints shoot at during OIF, and determine which of the aimpoints could have been serviced by this proposed new weapon system. Only about 5% of the targets could have been hit with this weapon. Funny part of the story. The company that was developing this system was headquartered in the House Armed Forces Services Committee chairmans district. The Navy didn’t want and didn’t need the system, but for a time it looked like the system, which had 1/10th the range and 1/5th the warhead of my weapon system, was going to be imposed on the Navy. So I like his idea of an independant commission keeping DOD grounded in fiscal realities.
Missile defence systems? Well, look at me with a straight face and tell me how North Korea or Iran is going to attack the US with ICBMs. And those were two of the countries that this administration cites as ICBM threats.
Russia? Umm, maybe. I MIGHT be more inclined to support the Missile Defense System if they were putting the interceptor bases closer to where real threats are…i.e. Middle East. Israel and Bahrain. Maybe Qatar. Don’t see a need for them in Poland or that other country (forgot which one it is).
Not saying we should shut down the entire thing, but I do think that the pace of it should be scaled back. Also think that the interceptor launch platform would better be the AEGIS platforms. Fixed launch sites can be negated. That’s why SSBNs were and are better than bombers or Silos. Basically I think that the Navy should take over the program. After all, we’ve proved we can hit a satillite, which in reality is about as hard as hitting an ICBM - same basic orbital mechanics. Less time of response, but it’s a ballistic trajectory which is the simplest and most predictable of flight paths.
3. Eliminate Nuclear Weapons. I don’t think that this is a bad goal……as long as the other guys do the same thing. Now I’m suspicious and pragmatic enough to believe that the other guy, if so inclined, is gonna make it really hard to find ALL his nukes. So, there does need to be a minimum number of warheards. And this would necessitate a given amount of maintenance and replacement activity. But how many would this number need to be?
Projected operational U.S. strategic nuclear warheads and bombs after full enactment of the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty in 2012: 1,700-2,200. Additional strategic and non-strategic warheads not limited by the treaty that the U.S. military wants to retain as a “hedge” against unforeseen future threats: 4,900
(Source: http://www.brookings.edu/projects/archive/nucweapons/50.aspx Accessed 3 MAR 0
So at a MINIMUM DOD wants 6600 Nuclear warheads. Do we REALLY need that many? 4,900 warheads, JUST IN CASE SOMETHING COMES UP? What do they know that they aren’t telling us? 4,900 is a LOT of firepower. Assume an average yield of 100KT. You are talking about 49 GIGATONS of firepower. That is WAY more than you would need to blow up the entire planet. And thats what DOD wants as a HEDGE?
Oh, just a curious factoid about nuclear weapons. I had thought that the following number was around 2-3. Number of U.S. nuclear bombs lost in accidents and never recovered: 11 Where are they at? Is anyone ELSE worried about that?
SO reducing absolute numbers of nuclear weapons isn’t a bad thing. And a goal of zero in the world is a nice goal. Not gonna happen, but it’s nice to shoot for. ANd he NEVER says that he would (and he couldn’t anyway) engage in unilateral disarmament. So you really can’t fault him on his position on that.
Now, all that being said, I don’t support Obama no matter how crazy I am. He is a populist that has provided very little substance on how he’s gonna pay for all the benefits he wants to provide. He’s offering a lot of head patting and class envy to suck people into buying what he’s selling. Which is ‘elect me!’ and nothing more.
But just because I don’t support him doesn’t mean he doesn’t have some good ideas. Just because he’s a liberal, doesn’t mean he can’t have ideas that make sense. Ain’t NONE of us cornered the market in the smart ideas department, so it behooves us to be open to all quarters when it comes to ideas on how to fix what’s broke in America. And there is so very much broke.